Seasonal Typhoon Forecast

IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

 

2019

 

Number of Typhoons

Number of Landfalls (China)

Intensity at Landfall (m/s)

Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Climatology

15

8

24

279

Forecast

-2

-2

-2

-20

 

Explanation:

Climatology: The median over the last 20 years (1999-2018) for the North West Pacific basin to 180oE for the year as reported in IBTrACS.

Number of Typhoons: The number of tropical cyclones (typhoons) in the basin with a maximum wind speed of sustained wind speed of at least 67 m/s (241 km/h,150 mph) averaged over 1 minute as reported by the JTWC.

Number of landfalls: Number of times where the tropical cyclone eye crosses mainland China as reported by the China Meteorology Agency. Only one landfall per tropical cyclone is counted even if some tropical cyclones can make multiple landfalls.

Intensity at landfall: The China Meteorological Agency reported maximum wind speed (m/s ) at the time of landfall.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: The ACE of the year in the basin is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated maximum sustained velocity of every active tropical storm (wind speed 35 knots [65 km/h, 40 mph] or higher), at six-hour intervals as reported by JTWC. Units are n 104 knots2.

Forecast: Central best estimate for the entire year. Last updated October 15th 2019

Methodology

We combine observed and numerical model season forecasts of wind and pressure fields at the surface and aloft in the West Pacific as predictors. The methodology is back tested with good results. The forecast is updated every month throughout the year.

Regular updates and further information can be found here.

Related Links

China landfall catalogue

A typhoon landfall event generator and Hong Kong sample from this generator.

Global climatology of integrated kinetic energy

Acknowledgments:

Funded by Horizon 2020 Insurance